It’s always funny to me how quickly an election becomes a distant memory. The clarity that follows election results makes all the pontification, prophesying, and predicting beforehand seem immediately ancient. The big takeaway from the 2021 election is that the polls were quite good. They were also extremely sensitive — both over and under emphasizing shifts in the electorate. Additionally,…
Category: State of the race
It’s the pandemic, stupid
One of the main reasons I started this blog is because I think that the media often overlooks the big picture and long-term trends. I want to offer my readers a long-term perspective on German politics. With the 2021 election drawing nearer, the media cycles are becoming shorter and shorter. Small gaffes are amplified, individual polls are overemphasized, and the…
It’s the CDU/CSU’s election to lose
Sometimes the obvious take is the right take, even though it’s boring. Germans don’t like change. The Christian Democrats have been in charge for the last 16 years and they will almost certainly be in charge after September’s election as well. Get used to saying chancellor Armin Laschet. My model has predicted the CDU/CSU to be the most popular party…
Candidates don’t matter (much)
In my post from March, I boldly (read: foolishly) staked my claim about how I think the German election will go down. My take hasn’t really changed all that much, though there has been a significant shift in the polling numbers in favor of Die Grüne and away from the CDU/CSU. Time will tell whether the Greens can keep their…
How Germany will (likely) vote in 2021
I couldn’t have picked a worse year to publish a prediction model for German politics. There’s a global pandemic that continues to produce economic and social contexts that are without historic precedent (and precedent is important in predictions) and it’s the first election in 16 years in which Angela Merkel is not running for chancellor. These two factors are turning…